Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a16…9d73 sports 640 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,515 (-1%) realized −$1,494 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%302W / 321L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day116.9pace
Fees−$1,440est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$488
other 0% +$50
crypto 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +14.5% +3.6% 67% 62% +49.3%
≤30d 623 +9.5% -0.9% 48% 46% -9.5%
≤90d 623 +9.5% -0.9% 48% 46% -9.5%
all 623 +9.5% -0.9% 48% 46% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 46% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 43% -18.1%
15% -19.1% 37% -26.0%
20% -27.0% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$134 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$1,494
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses302 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,440
Open positions17
Markets (closed)623 / 640
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$158
Trades / day116.9
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 61¢ 62¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 36¢ 36¢ $97 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs ex-RUBY 60¢ 60¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 46¢ 40¢ $56 $49 −$7 (-12%)
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) CYBERSHOKE Esports 62¢ 60¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) G2 Ares 58¢ 50¢ $47 $41 −$6 (-13%)
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner RUSTEC 49¢ 48¢ $37 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) Betclic Apogee Esports 50¢ 65¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+31%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Betclic Apogee Esports 22¢ 28¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner CYBERSHOKE Esports 44¢ 42¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs CYBERSHOKE Esports 36¢ 38¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 53¢ 56¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 56¢ 55¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 1 Winner Betclic Apogee Esports 29¢ 58¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+102%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs G2 Ares 34¢ 10¢ $33 $9 −$24 (-72%)
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) FUT Esports 31¢ 30¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 58¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $33 −$12 -35%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) Jun 15 $38 +$2 +6%
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) Jun 15 $38 +$10 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$22 +89%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $75 +$62 +82%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $75 +$59 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $164 +$309 +188%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$5 +67%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: DNT (-1.5) vs OLDBOYS- (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $17 +$19 +110%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs STATE (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $18 +$3 +19%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 12 $15 +$7 +45%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $29 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Sta Jun 06 $11 +$6 +51%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $82 −$82 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 +$19 +608%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $74 +$38 +52%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $79 −$79 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $38 +$55 +147%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $74 −$1 -1%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $53 +$59 +110%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $60 +$41 +68%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $33 −$33 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $71 −$15 -21%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $25 +$17 +69%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 +$36 +70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $33 +$32 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,652 −$1,652 -100%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $109 +$139 +128%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $35 +$22 +61%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $116 −$116 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $13 +$17 +135%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $24 +$24 +98%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $7 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 60¢ $38 1h
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY G2 Ares 57¢ $10 1h
Map Handicap: GZ (-1.5) vs MARKandLARRY (+1.5) SELL Ground Zero 100¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $25 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $3 7h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 50¢ $3 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $19 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $47 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $51 8h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 50¢ $7 8h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $137 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $47 10h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 51¢ $5 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $78 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $2 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $43 13h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $7 13h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY RUSTEC 49¢ $38 13h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 45¢ $43 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $134 13h
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Betclic Apogee Esports (+1.5) BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 50¢ $27 15h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 63¢ $21 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $599.31 · official $599.31 (match) · 3500 history records