Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a18…554c crypto 1289 markets active 2d ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$585 (+7%) realized +$585 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%710W / 579L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days+$17
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$372
sports 1% +$36
finance 1% $0
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -8.0% -16.7% 53% 53% -15.5%
≤30d 865 -2.5% -11.8% 53% 53% -9.4%
≤90d 1289 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 55% -5.1%
all 1289 +0.1% -9.4% 55% 55% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 55% -5.1%
10% -18.1% 54% -14.1%
15% -26.0% 51% -22.4%
20% -33.3% 47% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses710 / 579
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1289 / 1289
History coverage69d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1289 Trades
no open positions (453 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2191 history records