Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0a18…ba41 other 567 markets active 0h ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,334 (-6%) realized −$1,334 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%303W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$60
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$1,433
sports 43% +$47
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$5
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +14.3% +3.5% 61% 61% -5.7%
≤30d 36 +12.9% +2.2% 61% 58% -5.2%
≤90d 62 -3.2% -12.4% 55% 45% -9.5%
all 566 -5.6% -14.6% 54% 43% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 43% -15.3%
10% -22.8% 36% -23.4%
15% -30.2% 29% -30.8%
20% -37.1% 22% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$20 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,334
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses303 / 263
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)566 / 567
History coverage336d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 566 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $80 −$46 -58%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $29 +$9 +32%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $54 +$37 +68%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 +$41 +140%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$39 +64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$14 +137%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $33 −$31 -93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $144 +$19 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$38 +106%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 +$17 +35%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$9 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 −$6 -35%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $18 −$6 -34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $14 −$10 -73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $92 +$22 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $69 +$22 +32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 −$156 -69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$35 +118%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$10 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $49 +$31 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 +$56 +60%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 −$15 -54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$14 -43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$12 +130%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $68 −$59 -86%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $145 +$8 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $48 −$4 -8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $72 +$27 +38%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$21 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 −$36 -70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $21 +$1 +6%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $59 −$8 -13%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $35 +$25 +71%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $25 +$10 +38%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $40 −$15 -38%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $25 +$15 +59%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $19 −$19 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $100 +$24 +24%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $19 +$1 +4%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 04 $17 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $34 25m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $39 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 94¢ $91 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $29 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $54 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $30 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $100 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $61 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 78¢ $24 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $2 27h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 27h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $10 31h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $15 31h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $10 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $23 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $144 44h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 48¢ $36 46h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 73¢ $67 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $50 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 42¢ $11 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $12 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $18 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL 30¢ $12 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 44¢ $18 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1531 history records