Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a1a…ae9e other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-13%) realized −$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%14W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$12
sports 38% +$20
crypto 16% −$28
world 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-43.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -36.0% -42.1% 28% 26% -16.6%
≤30d 50 -37.0% -43.0% 28% 26% -19.8%
≤90d 50 -37.0% -43.0% 28% 26% -19.8%
all 50 -37.0% -43.0% 28% 26% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.0% 26% -19.8%
10% -48.4% 26% -27.5%
15% -53.4% 24% -34.5%
20% -58.0% 16% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses14 / 36
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 58
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-29%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$3 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $26 +$7 +27%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$2 +91%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$10 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $14 +$9 +62%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $4 +$4 +95%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -64%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$10 +509%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 +$15 +250%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$9 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -32%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +124%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +108%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 78¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 34h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $4 34h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 22¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 82 history records