Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a1b…b45d world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%3W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$1
other 29% −$2
politics 24% −$1
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 38 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 38 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses3 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio attend NATO Summit? No 10¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 67¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? Jun 21 $13 $0 +0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 21 $23 $0 +1%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Jun 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $8 $0 -2%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Bronze Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $4 $0 -3%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 14 $22 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 13 $17 $0 +1%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 13 $15 $0 -3%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 11 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -1%
Will JD Vance attend NATO Summit? Jun 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump praise Brett Kavanaugh by June 30? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $13 1h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $13 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $28 1h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $28 1h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 2h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? BUY No 90¢ $22 2h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 5h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 5h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? SELL No 93¢ $9 6h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? BUY No 93¢ $9 6h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 9h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 9h
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 9h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 59¢ $21 26h
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 59¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 30h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 23¢ $12 32h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 23¢ $8 32h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 23¢ $3 32h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 33h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 33h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 33h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 33h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $13 34h
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 BUY No 87¢ $13 34h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 31¢ $8 34h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 31¢ $8 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.23 (match) · 137 history records