Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a1f…943e crypto 191 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$185 (-1%) realized −$215 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%65W / 123L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,762now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days−$299
14 days−$320
30 days−$1,070
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$2,748
other 20% −$1,579
sports 5% −$50
culture 2% +$2,948
world 0% −$21
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +16.3% +5.2% 40% 40% -23.8%
≤30d 16 -12.6% -20.9% 38% 31% -39.5%
≤90d 84 +20.1% +8.7% 33% 32% -35.6%
all 188 +14.9% +4.0% 35% 31% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 31% -19.3%
10% -6.0% 29% -27.1%
15% -15.1% 23% -34.1%
20% -23.4% 20% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$69 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$2,762
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses65 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)188 / 191
History coverage137d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,727 $1,774 +$47 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
World Cup: Winless Team? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $618 −$618 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $36 +$201 +557%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $155 +$51 +33%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $177 +$243 +137%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $545 +$192 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $18 +$6 +31%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $523 −$523 -100%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? May 21 $509 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 21 $48 −$45 -95%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 20 $209 −$209 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $4 $0 -11%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $18 −$11 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 03 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 03 $59 +$20 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 03 $101 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 03 $143 +$39 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 03 $32 +$20 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 03 $53 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 27 $14 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 25 $92 −$86 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Apr 25 $24 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 25 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 25 $47 +$46 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 25 $35 −$14 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 25 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 25 $61 −$18 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Apr 25 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 25 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 25 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 24 $40 +$59 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Apr 24 $49 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 24 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 24 $29 +$70 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $309 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $20 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $13 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $4 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $5 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $21 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $28 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $25 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $3 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $50 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $1 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $110 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 88¢ $237 40h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 41h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $206 41h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 75¢ $155 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 85¢ $132 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 67¢ $103 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $18 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $150 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $177 43h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $244 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,761.93 · official $2,761.93 (match) · 1087 history records