Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a20…cd26 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$246 (+7%) realized +$246 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day106.7pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$241
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 5% -3.4%
≤30d 22 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 5% -3.4%
≤90d 22 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 5% -3.4%
all 22 -5.3% -14.3% 64% 5% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 5% -3.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 5% -12.7%
15% -30.0% 5% -21.1%
20% -36.9% 0% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$11 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$246
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day106.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $205 +$12 +6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $401 +$24 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $658 +$28 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$24 -48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $454 +$34 +8%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $135 +$10 +7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $400 +$29 +7%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $91 −$8 -8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $356 +$147 +41%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $76 +$7 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $88 −$41 -47%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $251 +$21 +9%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $105 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 $0 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $45 −$7 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 96¢ $54 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 92¢ $47 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $12 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 81¢ $46 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 61¢ $52 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 61¢ $0 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 59¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 54¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 51¢ $48 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $47 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $3 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 47¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 47¢ $16 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 47¢ $29 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 47¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 41¢ $53 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 39¢ $54 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $50 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 36¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 334 history records