Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a21…50d3 other 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,898 (-3%) realized −$2,927 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%335W / 356L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$816
7 days−$1,496
14 days−$1,070
30 days−$864
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$3,948
sports 20% +$677
world 1% +$114
crypto 0% −$32
finance 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +16.0% +4.9% 50% 48% -20.6%
≤30d 135 +8.9% -1.5% 50% 49% -14.3%
≤90d 369 +5.5% -4.5% 50% 47% -7.8%
all 691 -2.8% -12.0% 48% 46% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 46% -12.3%
10% -20.4% 43% -20.7%
15% -28.1% 38% -28.4%
20% -35.2% 31% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$102 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$939
Realized−$2,927
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses335 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions6
Markets (closed)691 / 697
History coverage231d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $664 $670 +$6 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 327 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $100 +$16 +16%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $842 −$830 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$21 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 +$59 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $66 −$65 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $324 +$228 +70%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $234 +$236 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $247 +$124 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$53 +116%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $502 +$66 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $535 +$272 +51%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$50 +982%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $212 +$86 +41%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$41 +134%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $208 +$201 +96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $438 +$142 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$28 +344%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $67 +$66 +99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,022 −$1,013 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $341 −$337 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $91 −$90 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $172 −$170 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $302 −$300 -99%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 27m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $471 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $548 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $571 1h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $203 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 13h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $100 14h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $15 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $304 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 25h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $406 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 31h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 47h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 47h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $20 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $2 47h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.71 · official $938.71 (match) · 1685 history records