Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:48:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a22…23a7 weather 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%135W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$8
sports 6% −$32
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +50.0% +35.7% 57% 57% -7.8%
≤30d 10 +21.9% +10.2% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 315 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 36% -11.6%
all 323 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 35% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 35% -11.7%
10% -18.5% 27% -20.1%
15% -26.3% 23% -27.8%
20% -33.6% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses135 / 188
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)323 / 327
History coverage92d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 323 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +143%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? Jun 12 $3 +$9 +275%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 19? May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16? May 17 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? May 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16? May 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16? May 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? May 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 8? May 13 $5 +$8 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 76°F or higher on May 10? May 13 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 9? May 13 $3 +$10 +319%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 10? May 13 $10 +$4 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? May 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14? May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 13? May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 13? May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13? May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13? May 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? May 12 $5 +$35 +676%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 1 May 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 9? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $3 +$5 +155%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 11? May 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 11? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 11? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 8? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 10? May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 7? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 8? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 8? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 7? May 09 $3 +$14 +458%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7? May 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on May 6? May 07 $10 +$6 +63%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on May May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 6? May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 6? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 31h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 4¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 29d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 30d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 18? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 31d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 17? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 31d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 32d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 32d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 32d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 32d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 32d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 32d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 33d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14? BUY No 76¢ $5 34d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 35d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 1 BUY Yes 27¢ $3 36d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 36d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 37d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.95 · official $7.96 (match) · 640 history records