Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a22…8557 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$7
other 24% $0
politics 11% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% −$2
culture 3% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.6%
all 48 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 2% -10.3%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage264d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 82¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $21 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $13 +$1 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 30 $37 −$3 -8%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $48 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $46 −$5 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $42 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Dec 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Oct 18 $4 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US loose jobs in September? Oct 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 13 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 10 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 06 $2 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $4 $0 -2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 04 $2 $0 -5%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $9 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $12 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 30h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 40h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $33 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $15 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $23 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.40 · official $36.40 (match) · 164 history records