Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a22…8ce0 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$578 (-30%) realized −$565 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$853
7 days−$829
14 days−$839
30 days−$866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$829
sports 19% −$126
crypto 3% −$27
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +20.9% +9.3% 33% 33% -76.9%
≤30d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 29% 29% -76.3%
≤90d 46 -25.5% -32.6% 33% 28% -63.4%
all 47 -23.9% -31.2% 34% 30% -62.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 30% -62.5%
10% -37.8% 28% -66.1%
15% -43.8% 28% -69.3%
20% -49.3% 23% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$38 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$565
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage90d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $180 $190 +$10 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $1,003 −$753 -75%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 24 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$13 +127%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $30 −$30 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 +$43 +285%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Natus Vincere win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? May 03 $15 −$8 -54%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FURIA win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2026? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $10 −$8 -79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $15 +$9 +60%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 15 $5 −$2 -48%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FUT Esports win PGL Bucharest 2026? Apr 11 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 11 $20 −$17 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 11 $5 −$4 -81%
Will Astralis win PGL Bucharest 2026? Apr 10 $10 +$1 +9%
FC Porto vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $10 +$11 +114%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $15 +$13 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 07 $2 $0 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 04 $10 $0 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $25 −$25 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs B8 (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Pl Apr 03 $20 +$28 +140%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Mar 31 $15 +$7 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $184 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 20¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $160 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $91 1h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 99¢ $23 16d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 43¢ $10 16d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $10 23d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 23d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $3 47d
Will Natus Vincere win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 57d
Will Natus Vincere win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 58d
Will FURIA win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 61d
Will Natus Vincere win BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 61d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 62d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 70d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2026? SELL Yes $0 73d
Real Betis Balompié vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 74d
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 74d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL FURIA 100¢ $8 75d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ $2 75d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 43¢ $10 75d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL FURIA 64¢ $15 75d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY FURIA 46¢ $15 75d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 75d
Will Falcons win IEM Rio 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 75d
Will Vitality win IEM Rio 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 75d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 75d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.88 · official $266.17 (match) · 193 history records