Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0a26…1851 sports 555 markets active 23h ago coverage 111d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$102,120 (-8%) realized −$103,576 · open +$1,456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%254W / 557L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,307per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$10,008est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$16,906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$23,379
other 17% −$17,709
world 16% −$20,453
crypto 10% −$2,104
politics 1% +$1,255
finance 1% −$2,151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -96.0% -96.4% 1% 1% -93.6%
≤30d 425 -69.6% -72.5% 16% 14% -61.8%
≤90d 770 -40.5% -46.2% 31% 29% -31.5%
all 811 -39.5% -45.2% 31% 29% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 29% -31.7%
10% -50.5% 28% -38.2%
15% ← realistic here -55.3% 25% -44.2%
20% -59.7% 20% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$2,022) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,209 vs −$1,210 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$16,906
Realized−$103,576
Unrealized+$1,456
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses254 / 557
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$10,008
Open positions12
Markets (closed)811 / 555
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$2,307
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 811 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $5,327 $5,211 −$116 (-2%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 94¢ $2,000 $3,016 +$1,016 (+51%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 55¢ $2,706 $2,569 −$137 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 88¢ 96¢ $2,148 $2,336 +$187 (+9%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 75¢ 79¢ $1,382 $1,461 +$78 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 66¢ 90¢ $1,000 $1,365 +$365 (+37%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 74¢ $467 $544 +$78 (+17%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $378 $369 −$9 (-2%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 74¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Donald Trump visit Turkey in 2026? No 26¢ 7¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-73%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $113K and $115K on August 8? Jun 20 $350 −$350 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $660 −$660 -100%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Daniil Medvedev vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 20 $647 −$640 -99%
South Africa vs. Cameroon: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.003 before August? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2025-11-07? Jun 20 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $3,479 −$3,479 -100%
Will Jagiellonia Białystok win on 2025-11-27? Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Nicolás Maduro seen in public by January 5? Jun 20 $269 −$269 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 20 $3,840 −$3,840 -100%
AC Milan vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Al Najmah Saudi Club win on 2026-01-02? Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 20 $7,040 −$7,098 -101%
Will US Avranches Mont-Saint-Michel win on 2025-12-19? Jun 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-30? Jun 20 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
Cameroon vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $925 −$925 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Jun 20 $339 −$339 -100%
West Ham vs. Liverpool: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10,294 −$10,294 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,082 −$3,082 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $115K on August 6? Jun 20 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Marcos Giron vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 20 $1,180 −$1,180 -100%
Tien vs. Kjaer: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $640 −$640 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Yannick Hanfmann vs Zachary Svajda Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by March 31? Jun 20 $691 −$545 -79%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 800k+ BTC by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2025-11-14? Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? Jun 20 $710 −$710 -100%
Open Sud de France: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $300 −$327 -109%
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2025-11-27? Jun 20 $180 −$180 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2025-12-21? Jun 20 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jun 20 $150 −$150 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) Jun 20 $600 −$600 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Jun 20 $466 −$466 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Gea Jun 20 $520 −$520 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $520 −$520 -100%
Will Genoa CFC vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Spurs Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw? Jun 20 $250 −$250 -100%
SSC Napoli vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-07? Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $1,300 23h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $1,000 46h
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $1,346 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $3,646 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $303 47h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 12¢ $298 47h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 58¢ $2,553 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 57¢ $39 2d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 57¢ $147 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 96¢ $2,137 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 40¢ $606 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 62¢ $955 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 58¢ $956 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $1,505 4d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $23 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 59¢ $1,017 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 62¢ $1,129 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $996 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $36 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $245 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 66¢ $1,000 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $70 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $2 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $1 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $155 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $26 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $142 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $8 5d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,906.50 · official $16,906.50 (match) · 3500 history records