Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a27…2d3d other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%19W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$2
other 29% +$1
politics 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 14 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 15 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 46 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses19 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage467d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $29 $0 +2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $62 −$2 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $2 $0 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $30 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $63 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $8 $0 -2%
Will Claudiu Târziu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27? Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will 'Fight or Flight' gross between $0.9-1.2m opening weekend? May 09 $11 $0 +4%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 2–9? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $12 $0 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $9 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 16 $9 $0 -3%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $29 11h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $25 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $4 15h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $27 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $2 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $31 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $28 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $25 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $3 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $10 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $18 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $31 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 132 history records