Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a28…4e3b other 1491 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$179 (-3%) realized −$176 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%666W / 786L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$24
14 days+$58
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$30
other 49% −$56
crypto 2% −$12
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +29.2% +16.9% 61% 61% -0.1%
≤30d 341 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 43% -1.3%
≤90d 954 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 41% -10.7%
all 1452 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 45% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 45% -11.2%
10% -18.0% 43% -19.7%
15% -25.9% 38% -27.5%
20% -33.2% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$176
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses666 / 786
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1452 / 1491
History coverage166d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 53¢ 3¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $6 +$4 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $4 +$4 +85%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$2 +100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $3 +$7 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$8 +73%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$6 +183%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +144%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +175%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4 +$6 +127%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +138%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$5 +138%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 −$23 -47%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4 +$4 +122%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +128%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$5 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$6 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$3 +69%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +158%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $17 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- Jun 10 $8 −$1 -10%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 53¢ $4 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $8 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $4 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $10 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 23h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 50¢ $5 28h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL SPARTA 49¢ $5 28h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) SELL Bebop 49¢ $5 28h
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 50¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 50¢ $5 29h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 36¢ $1 32h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $10 33h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 34¢ $3 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 52¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 49¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $9 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $3 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 78¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.24 (match) · 3086 history records