Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:23:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a29…d03a crypto 102 markets active 5d ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate69%70W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$37
other 2% +$4
sports 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -6.0%
≤30d 2 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -6.0%
≤90d 2 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -6.0%
all 102 -14.5% -22.6% 69% 59% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 59% -8.8%
10% -30.0% 13% -17.5%
15% -36.8% 9% -25.5%
20% -43.0% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses70 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage242d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Oct 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Oct 28 $70 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Oct 28 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Oct 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Oct 28 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Oct 27 $25 −$15 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Oct 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Oct 27 $43 +$57 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Oct 27 $44 +$16 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Oct 27 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Oct 27 $128 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Oct 27 $80 −$79 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 27 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Oct 27 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Oct 27 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Oct 27 $70 +$30 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Oct 27 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Oct 27 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Oct 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Oct 27 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Oct 27 $45 −$36 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Oct 27 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Oct 27 $25 −$12 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Oct 26 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Oct 23 $30 −$26 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Oct 23 $90 +$20 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Oct 23 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Oct 23 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Oct 23 $90 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Oct 22 $315 −$54 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Oct 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Oct 22 $58 −$15 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Oct 22 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Oct 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Oct 22 $30 −$24 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 22 $48 +$32 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Oct 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Oct 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Oct 22 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Oct 22 $90 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 19¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 14¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $10 144d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $55 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $40 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $8 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $19 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $70 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $50 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $18 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $11 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $20 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $20 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 233d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 667 history records