Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a2b…40f3 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$114 (+3%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.5% -22.7% 72% 61% -6.8%
≤30d 18 -14.5% -22.7% 72% 61% -6.8%
≤90d 18 -14.5% -22.7% 72% 61% -6.8%
all 18 -14.5% -22.7% 72% 61% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 61% -6.8%
10% -30.1% 17% -15.7%
15% -36.8% 6% -23.9%
20% -43.0% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$92 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage4d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $86 −$85 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $9 +$2 +17%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $432 +$68 +16%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $399 +$166 +42%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $164 +$36 +22%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $38 +$4 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $169 +$27 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $105 +$21 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $161 +$39 +24%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $163 −$163 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $195 −$193 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $189 +$8 +4%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $176 +$36 +21%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $313 +$87 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $336 +$17 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $351 +$49 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $86 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $9 5h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $432 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $159 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $90 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $14 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $136 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $164 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $38 34h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $169 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $105 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $161 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $163 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $47 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $147 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $189 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $167 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $9 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $144 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 81¢ $19 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $131 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 70¢ $19 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $18 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 88¢ $173 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 79¢ $157 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $163 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $351 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records