Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0A 0x0a2d…6db9 crypto 824 markets active 0h ago coverage 1000d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$17,966 (-9%) realized −$21,305 · open +$3,339
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%402W / 398L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$386est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$11,883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$444
7 days+$358
14 days−$609
30 days−$17,402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% −$4,249
other 29% −$549
sports 22% −$4,740
tech 4% −$7,286
finance 2% +$239
world 2% −$1,470
economics 1% −$2,568
politics 1% +$1,647
weather 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 -1.5% -10.9% 58% 39% -8.4%
≤30d 241 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 39% -30.1%
≤90d 383 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 39% -24.7%
all 800 -2.2% -11.5% 50% 42% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 42% -20.2%
10% -20.0% 37% -27.8%
15% -27.7% 32% -34.8%
20% -34.8% 27% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$206 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1000d coverage
Net worth$11,883
Realized−$21,305
Unrealized+$3,339
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses402 / 398
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$386
Open positions23
Markets (closed)800 / 824
History coverage1000d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 800 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 52¢ $1,705 $4,717 +$3,012 (+177%)
Will GRVT launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $1,341 $1,538 +$197 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1,100 $1,163 +$63 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,010 $1,076 +$66 (+7%)
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $400 $425 +$25 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $300 $307 +$8 (+3%)
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? No 30¢ 99¢ $88 $293 +$204 (+231%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $200 $288 +$88 (+44%)
Reya FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $250 $270 +$20 (+8%)
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $600 $264 −$336 (-56%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 84¢ $201 $257 +$56 (+28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $248 −$52 (-17%)
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch? Yes 32¢ 64¢ $100 $199 +$99 (+98%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 42¢ $207 $126 −$81 (-39%)
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 30¢ $93 $122 +$29 (+31%)
Will GRVT launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 28¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 72¢ $100 $89 −$12 (-12%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 15¢ 14¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes 17¢ 7¢ $83 $34 −$49 (-59%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $301 +$46 +15%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $412 +$32 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $103 −$76 -74%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $253 −$253 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $309 +$163 +53%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $516 +$294 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$243 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $311 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $504 +$154 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$49 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $74 +$48 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1,140 +$357 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $314 −$258 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$86 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$98 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $303 +$132 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $347 17m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 84¢ $301 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $101 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $101 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 87¢ $444 22h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 1¢ $27 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $412 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $103 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 0¢ $0 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $253 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 32h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $101 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $472 46h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $309 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $516 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $316 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $311 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $32 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,883.16 · official $11,885.39 (match) · 2482 history records