Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0a30…b094 sports 774 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$396 (+3%) realized +$451 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%308W / 446L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$835now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$34
14 days+$20
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$383
sports 46% −$201
politics 3% −$6
crypto 2% +$59
culture 2% +$44
world 0% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +30.8% +18.4% 57% 57% +3.7%
≤30d 80 +17.7% +6.5% 49% 49% +12.8%
≤90d 634 -20.7% -28.3% 33% 33% -27.0%
all 754 +1.6% -8.0% 41% 41% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 41% -6.9%
10% -16.8% 41% -15.8%
15% -24.9% 40% -23.9%
20% -32.2% 40% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$835
Realized+$451
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses308 / 446
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions20
Markets (closed)754 / 774
History coverage159d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 754 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $150 $162 +$12 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $175 $146 −$29 (-17%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 60¢ $45 $51 +$6 (+14%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+57%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 47¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-9%)
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 50¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 31¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-13%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-16%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-79%)
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 12¢ $15 $4 −$10 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$28 +93%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $154 −$13 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$11 +106%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +129%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 −$6 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +73%
Australia vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +129%
United States vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 06 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Ethiopia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 +$7 +134%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $15 −$15 -99%
Australia vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$10 -95%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$8 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 +$22 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-04? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 02 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $10 +$7 +73%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $304 +$213 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will João Félix be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 31m
Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 34m
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 20¢ $10 49m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 52m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $140 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $30 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $7 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $10 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 7d
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 40¢ $15 7d
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Will Martin Ødegaard score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 7d
Will Bernardo Silva score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 7d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 7d
Will Nuno Mendes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 7d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $46 9d
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 9d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 32¢ $10 9d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 9d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY No 24¢ $5 9d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 9d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 44¢ $5 9d
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10d
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 10d
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $834.88 · official $832.51 (match) · 1495 history records