Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a33…5692 crypto 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 579d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$995 (-10%) realized −$929 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%216W / 302L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$773
14 days−$773
30 days−$773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,002
other 5% −$395
sports 4% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -2.1% -11.5% 31% 31% -43.2%
≤30d 78 -2.1% -11.5% 31% 31% -43.2%
≤90d 366 -2.7% -12.0% 39% 39% -22.8%
all 518 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 42% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 42% -21.2%
10% -20.1% 42% -28.7%
15% -27.8% 42% -35.6%
20% -34.9% 42% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

579d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$929
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses216 / 302
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)518 / 524
History coverage579d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 518 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 41¢ 8¢ $41 $7 −$33 (-82%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $48 +$52 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$55 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$17 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$16 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$12 +138%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 +$57 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$31 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$11 +208%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$77 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$16 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$16 +108%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +108%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$44 +1420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$32 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $28 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $14 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.85 · official $172.35 · 1747 history records