trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +14.7% | +3.7% | 100% | 75% | +5.1% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -40.1% | -45.8% | 46% | 38% | -21.2% |
| all | 31 | -37.7% | -43.7% | 35% | 29% | -24.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -43.7% | 29% | -24.9% |
| 10% | -49.1% | 23% | -32.1% |
| 15% | -54.0% | 16% | -38.6% |
| 20% | -58.5% | 16% | -44.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $56 | $57 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $36 | $36 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 18 | $69 | +$18 | +27% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | Jun 08 | $87 | +$10 | +11% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31? | Jun 01 | $38 | +$5 | +14% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | Jun 01 | $20 | +$1 | +7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 07 | $22 | −$22 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? | Apr 28 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 22 | $51 | +$12 | +24% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Apr 22 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Apr 14 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Penguins vs. Devils | Apr 14 | $40 | +$38 | +96% |
| Magic vs. Raptors | Apr 09 | $41 | −$41 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | Apr 09 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 March 23-29? | Mar 28 | $21 | +$90 | +423% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | Mar 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Heat vs. Hawks | Mar 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Clippers vs. Nuggets | Mar 28 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Lakers | Mar 28 | $13 | −$13 | -100% |
| Pacers vs. Nets | Mar 28 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Southeastern Louisiana Lions vs. East Texas A&M Lions | Mar 28 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Jazz vs. Rockets | Mar 28 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Blue Jackets vs. Rangers | Mar 28 | $27 | −$27 | -100% |
| Predators vs. Blackhawks | Mar 28 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Rockets vs. Hornets | Mar 28 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Heat | Mar 28 | $21 | −$21 | -100% |
| Mavericks vs. Suns | Mar 28 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Mar 28 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 19? | Mar 22 | $30 | +$21 | +70% |
| Raptors vs. Bucks | Feb 23 | $24 | +$17 | +70% |
| Kings vs. Spurs | Feb 22 | $39 | +$3 | +8% |
| Raptors vs. Magic | Feb 04 | $8 | +$7 | +82% |