Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0A 0x0a35…0004 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$1,064 (+48%) realized +$1,026 · open +$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +179% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +153% what you keep after slip

Net edge+153%after slip

Net WR83%break-even

Win rate83%5W / 1L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$139per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit12%portable

Net worth$1,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 126d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +83%

net ROI/market (all)+152.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	5	+235.1%	+203.2%	100%	100%	+213.2%
all	6	+179.2%	+152.6%	83%	83%	+102.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+152.6%	83%	+102.6%
10%	+128.5%	83%	+83.2%
15%	+106.4%	67%	+65.5%
20%	+86.1%	67%	+49.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +246% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +179% · $-wt +124% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$260 vs −$288 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×4.51 per $1 lost it wins $4.51

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage

Net worth$1,367

Realized+$1,026

Unrealized+$38

Win rate (resolved)83%

Wins / losses5 / 1

Open positions10

Markets (closed)6 / 16

History coverage126d

Avg bet$139

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 10 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$286	$324	+$38 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	14¢	$289	$230	−$59 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$224	$228	+$4 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$167	$193	+$26 (+16%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	9¢	12¢	$115	$151	+$36 (+31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$110	$86	−$24 (-22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$74	$79	+$5 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	4¢	$44	$53	+$9 (+20%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$14	+$4 (+38%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	Apr 30	$117	+$661	+566%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	Apr 30	$105	+$205	+195%
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	Apr 30	$106	+$346	+328%
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Apr 14	$100	+$23	+24%
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Apr 14	$100	+$63	+63%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	Feb 12	$288	−$288	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$78	1h
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	SELL No	99¢	$777	48d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	SELL No	99¢	$309	48d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	SELL No	100¢	$452	48d
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY No	32¢	$105	50d
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY No	14¢	$117	50d
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY No	22¢	$106	50d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	63d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$44	63d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$74	63d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	63d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$110	63d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	9¢	$115	63d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$147	63d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$216	63d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$229	63d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$20	63d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	63d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$70	63d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$60	63d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$200	63d
Over $3M committed to the Fluent public sale?	BUY No	80¢	$100	70d
Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale?	BUY No	59¢	$100	70d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	BUY Yes	4¢	$288	126d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,366.85 · official $1,366.85 (match) · 89 history records