Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a37…26cf other 209 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$56 (-5%) realized −$75 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%111W / 96L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$58
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$43
sports 27% −$83
crypto 6% −$6
weather 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -5.7% -14.7% 43% 39% -15.5%
≤30d 77 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 44% -14.1%
≤90d 179 -8.2% -16.9% 53% 43% -15.4%
all 207 -5.7% -14.7% 54% 45% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 45% -14.8%
10% -22.9% 32% -23.0%
15% -30.3% 21% -30.4%
20% -37.2% 16% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses111 / 96
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)207 / 209
History coverage104d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 68¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+29%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $14 +$6 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $3 −$1 -23%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$3 -84%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $22 +$12 +55%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$5 +46%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 −$95 -95%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $50 −$44 -88%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $47 +$7 +16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 +$35 +64%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $19 −$18 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 +$5 +8%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $68 +$24 +35%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Serbia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 +$7 +64%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $14 −$8 -54%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 +$8 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$29 +388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $14 +$1 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 −$10 -87%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$18 +786%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $37 +$51 +139%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$9 -75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 −$14 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $41 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 71¢ $2 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $3 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 22h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $22 22h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 22h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $12 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $6 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $47 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 43h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $19 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 44h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $58 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.59 · official $68.59 (match) · 516 history records