Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a37…b2e9 sports 10 markets active 6d ago coverage 55d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$515 (-22%) realized −$515 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$65
14 days−$65
30 days−$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$16
sports 43% −$545
other 3% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.9% -51.9% 50% 0% -47.7%
≤30d 6 -18.7% -26.5% 33% 17% -48.2%
≤90d 10 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 10% -29.3%
all 10 -10.9% -19.4% 40% 10% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 10% -29.3%
10% -27.1% 10% -36.1%
15% -34.2% 10% -42.3%
20% -40.6% 10% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$115 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage55d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 12 $84 +$5 +6%
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) May 24 $488 −$488 -100%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? May 24 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? May 22 $42 +$41 +99%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $49 −$9 -18%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? May 15 $28 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? May 13 $7 $0 +0%
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) Apr 23 $377 +$8 +2%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $743 −$7 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $18 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $21 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $8 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $12 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $12 5d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL Yes $45 5d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? SELL Yes $40 5d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY Yes $42 5d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY Yes $41 5d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-1.5) BUY FC Andorra 95¢ $488 24d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $486 24d
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $486 24d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes $41 26d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? SELL Yes $42 26d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes $24 26d
Will Germany recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes $18 26d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $20 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $20 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $24 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $24 29d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 33d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $14 33d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 33d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $14 33d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 35d
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 35d
Spread: Aarhus GF (-2.5) BUY FC Midtjylland 98¢ $377 58d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $372 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records