Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a3d…f2ff sports 1459 markets active 15h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$907 (-7%) realized −$848 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%503W / 908L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$182
14 days+$153
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$179
crypto 33% −$759
other 16% +$19
politics 0% −$16
finance 0% +$8
world 0% +$3
culture 0% −$6
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +25.1% +13.2% 38% 38% +13.5%
≤30d 352 +3.8% -6.0% 31% 31% -9.0%
≤90d 1411 -3.9% -13.0% 36% 35% -13.4%
all 1411 -3.9% -13.0% 36% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 35% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 33% -21.7%
15% -28.9% 32% -29.2%
20% -35.9% 31% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$848
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses503 / 908
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1411 / 1459
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 32¢ 32¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-20%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 34¢ 16¢ $29 $13 −$16 (-55%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 37¢ 40¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 42¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 38¢ 38¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 38¢ 36¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-28%)
Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-22%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-23%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 16¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $11 +$19 +172%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $11 +$13 +114%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $11 +$17 +152%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 17 $11 +$19 +165%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $22 +$52 +231%
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Ryan Colby vs Duncan Chan Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $11 +$28 +250%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 +$16 +146%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $11 +$16 +146%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 +$53 +159%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $11 +$16 +140%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$99 +874%
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $29 +$121 +422%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$29 +262%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$50 +442%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $11 +$17 +152%
Will Goiás EC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 12 $11 +$2 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $11 +$19 +172%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 12 $11 +$19 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida BUY Joaquin Aguilar 46¢ $11 14h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernando Escurra 16¢ $6 14h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 37¢ $11 14h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 18¢ $11 14h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Meritxell Teixido Garcia 29¢ $11 14h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 40¢ $11 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $11 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $11 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $11 14h
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 39¢ $11 14h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Samuel Heredia 18¢ $11 14h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Toronto Tempo 26¢ $11 14h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $11 14h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $11 14h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $11 14h
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute BUY Meritxell Teixido Garcia 30¢ $11 14h
ITF Tulsa: Ryan Colby vs Duncan Chan BUY Ryan Colby 37¢ $11 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $11 14h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 28¢ $11 39h
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 39h
ITF Tauste: Viola Turini vs Sabine Rutlauka BUY Sabine Rutlauka 36¢ $11 39h
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Buvaysar Gadamauri 41¢ $11 39h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $11 39h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 40¢ $11 39h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 12¢ $11 39h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $11 39h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $11 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $11 39h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $11 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $11 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.30 · official $360.30 (match) · 3500 history records