Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a41…0123 sports 288 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (295 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$810 (-11%) realized −$810 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%104W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day295.4pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$896
other 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (295 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 32% -20.1%
≤30d 288 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 32% -20.1%
≤90d 288 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 32% -20.1%
all 288 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 32% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 32% -20.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 25% -27.7%
15% -27.6% 20% -34.7%
20% -34.7% 15% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$15 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$810
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses104 / 184
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)288 / 288
History coverage2d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day295.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 288 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 +$3 +140%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 +$6 +129%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $5 +$5 +109%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $4 +$6 +152%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $6 +$3 +62%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $21 +$9 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$22 +250%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $8 +$4 +44%
ITF Maanshan: Hanyi Liu vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 12 $8 $0 +3%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Thanapet Chanta Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Natsuki Yoshimoto Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $3 +$7 +262%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $35 −$5 -15%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $16 −$1 -6%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $171 −$72 -42%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-2.5) Jun 12 $358 −$358 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $788 −$246 -31%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $186 −$14 -8%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 +$6 +114%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 12 $12 +$3 +29%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 164.5 Jun 12 $53 +$52 +97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 12 $22 −$16 -72%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $28 −$11 -38%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $55 +$22 +41%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $8 +$10 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $12 +$6 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $20 +$16 +78%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers v Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $595 −$195 -33%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $123 +$56 +45%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5) Jun 11 $8 +$1 +14%
ITF Los Angeles: Benjamin O'connell vs Matic Kriznik Jun 11 $18 +$5 +26%
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 11 $71 −$29 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $4 5d
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Thanapet Chanta BUY Thanapet Chanta 71¢ $7 5d
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li BUY Zongyu Li 61¢ $6 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 20¢ $3 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY PortlandFire 20¢ $2 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 99¢ $30 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 14¢ $6 5d
ITF Maanshan: Hanyi Liu vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Kokoro Isomura 57¢ $5 5d
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Mao Mushika BUY Mao Mushika 55¢ $6 5d
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner BUY Grey Trac 50¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Under $4 5d
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) BUY Las Vegas Aces 30¢ $4 5d
ITF Maanshan: Hanyi Liu vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Hanyi Liu 31¢ $3 5d
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Natsuki Yoshimoto BUY Natsuki Yoshimoto 63¢ $6 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 85¢ $9 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under $1 5d
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 173.5 BUY Under 40¢ $4 5d
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh BUY Chan-Yeong Oh 27¢ $3 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $7 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Winnipeg Blue Bombers 27¢ $3 5d
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Indios de Mayaguez BUY Indios de Mayaguez 17¢ $1 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Winnipeg Blue Bombers 49¢ $7 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 79¢ $53 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 13¢ $2 5d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 38¢ $6 5d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 77¢ $12 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 16¢ $5 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever BUY Chicago Sky 18¢ $19 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1306 history records