Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a43…8352 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,142 (-1%) realized −$1,143 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate28%40W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,020per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$21
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$247
politics 35% −$59
sports 16% −$891
world 3% +$9
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$5
economics 1% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -2.6% -11.8% 9% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 75 -13.4% -21.6% 8% 4% -11.3%
all 143 -0.6% -10.0% 28% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 12% -10.3%
10% -18.7% 11% -18.8%
15% -26.5% 10% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,366) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$1,143
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses40 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,020
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $394 $395 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $526 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $312 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 20 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $219 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,795 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,659 −$2 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,622 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,423 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,155 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,476 −$4 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,164 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $338 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $535 +$2 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,551 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,456 −$4 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $509 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $58 +$68 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,142 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $5,156 −$5 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 21 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 21 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,150 −$1 -0%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 20 $1,532 −$1,532 -100%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,369 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,366 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $3,827 −$4 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 22 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,530 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $1,990 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $1,355 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,270 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $526 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $526 2h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $312 19h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $312 21h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $316 22h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $495 24h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $495 26h
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $454 2d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $454 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 5d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $598 5d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $599 5d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $706 6d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $707 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $679 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $680 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $628 7d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $665 8d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $666 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $821 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $822 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $625 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $626 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $394 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $879 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $880 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $685 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.96 · official $394.96 (match) · 442 history records