Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a44…5770 sports 30 markets active 5d ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,041 (+6%) realized +$1,041 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$699
14 days−$699
30 days−$775
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,038
other 0% −$17
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +14.4% +3.5% 83% 83% -20.6%
≤30d 12 -12.7% -21.0% 58% 58% -17.6%
≤90d 25 -15.7% -23.8% 48% 48% -7.6%
all 30 -13.9% -22.1% 50% 50% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 50% -3.8%
10% -29.6% 43% -13.0%
15% -36.4% 40% -21.4%
20% -42.6% 27% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$870) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$371 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,041
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage106d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $583 +$304 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $870 +$412 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,087 −$2,071 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $128 +$57 +45%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,060 +$599 +29%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou May 27 $104 +$70 +67%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $889 −$874 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $547 −$540 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 27 $1,394 +$1,306 +94%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs ASTRAL (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 26 $28 −$28 -98%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 11 $1,057 +$1,016 +96%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Apr 10 $8 +$1 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight, Main Ca Apr 10 $13 +$10 +76%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 03 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 03 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Guilherme Pat (Heavyweight, Preli Apr 03 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Norwich City FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Apr 03 $7 −$1 -11%
Naples: Daniel Altmaier vs Miguel Damas Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Mar 24 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Mar 24 $3 +$7 +233%
Chile Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi Mar 24 $9 +$4 +49%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty L Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 World Cup: Sri Lanka vs Pakistan Feb 28 $4,161 +$2,772 +67%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $10 +$4 +43%
Pune: Manoj Dhamne Manas vs Duje Ajdukovic Feb 27 $14 +$10 +67%
T20 World Cup: England vs New Zealand Feb 27 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $887 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $583 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,282 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 27¢ $204 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 28¢ $114 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 28¢ $290 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $120 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $113 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $1,244 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $744 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $116 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 88¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 69¢ $128 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 77¢ $488 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 76¢ $99 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 77¢ $1,473 5d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY Heroic 32¢ $11 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 45¢ $22 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 45¢ $4 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 45¢ $183 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 42¢ $673 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 41¢ $7 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $531 22d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $16 22d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou BUY Lavked 59¢ $45 22d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou BUY Lavked 59¢ $4 22d
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Grou BUY Lavked 59¢ $54 22d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $626 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 223 history records