Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a46…bb90 crypto 1079 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate78%847W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +7.3% -2.9% 92% 58% -2.8%
≤30d 94 -0.1% -9.7% 83% 50% -9.9%
≤90d 373 -0.7% -10.1% 84% 13% -10.0%
all 1079 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 5% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses847 / 232
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1079 / 1079
History coverage118d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1079 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 01 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 29 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 28 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2291 history records