Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:19:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a47…7ed6 other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 308d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 28L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$4
other 39% +$3
politics 4% $0
finance 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -5.5% -14.5% 21% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -5.5% -14.5% 21% 0% -9.9%
all 38 -1.6% -11.0% 26% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -19.5% 0% -17.9%
15% -27.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage308d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $30 −$1 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $4 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $94 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $76 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 02 $8 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $34 −$4 -12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $89 +$4 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $98 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $5 −$1 -26%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -35%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $63 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $37 +$6 +15%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in October? Oct 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will Top Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Aug 20 $37 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $16 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $29 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $44 19h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $28 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $7 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $4 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $14 25h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $5 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $23 32h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 20d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $19 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $27 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $26 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $20 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $20 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $6 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $26 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $30 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $34 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $47 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $48 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.56 · official $47.56 (match) · 158 history records