Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:36:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0A 0x0a4a…41dd crypto 875 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$203 (-1%) realized −$383 · open +$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%488W / 385L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$118
14 days−$120
30 days−$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$409
other 1% −$36
sports 0% −$13
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% +$8
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +19.3% +7.9% 59% 59% -20.6%
≤30d 327 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 56% -15.4%
≤90d 639 -0.2% -9.7% 59% 57% -14.0%
all 873 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 52% -12.8%
10% -19.9% 46% -21.2%
15% -27.6% 39% -28.8%
20% -34.7% 28% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$383
Unrealized+$180
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses488 / 385
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)873 / 875
History coverage153d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 873 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 19¢ 50¢ $80 $204 +$124 (+156%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 7¢ 50¢ $9 $65 +$56 (+621%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$6 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$7 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$10 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $85 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $7 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.36 · official $269.36 (match) · 2872 history records