Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:14:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a4c…1940 other 475 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$927 (-2%) realized −$1,081 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate71%337W / 137L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$159est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$124
7 days−$246
14 days−$681
30 days−$687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$681
sports 40% −$1,826
crypto 5% +$140
world 0% −$75
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -0.7% -10.2% 63% 50% -14.5%
≤30d 154 -7.1% -16.0% 69% 51% -11.7%
≤90d 474 -5.9% -14.8% 71% 49% -11.0%
all 474 -5.9% -14.8% 71% 49% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 49% -11.0%
10% -23.0% 30% -19.6%
15% -30.4% 16% -27.3%
20% -37.3% 9% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$67 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$1,081
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses337 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$159
Open positions1
Markets (closed)474 / 475
History coverage70d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $122 $123 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$20 +237%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$34 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $37 +$32 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$11 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $57 −$26 -45%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $160 −$64 -40%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $243 −$123 -50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $174 +$32 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $190 +$35 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $150 +$4 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $115 +$11 +10%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $49 +$10 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $200 +$6 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $185 +$64 +34%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $217 −$217 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $151 +$66 +43%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $30 +$47 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$40 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $102 +$19 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 −$101 -99%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Bublik/Kyrgios vs Paul/Seggerman Jun 11 $96 +$27 +28%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $205 −$10 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $300 −$114 -38%
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $51 +$46 +90%
Will Avaí FC win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $140 +$26 +18%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $124 +$66 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $73 −$73 -99%
Will Vila Nova FC win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $147 +$27 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $48 +$4 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $132 +$11 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $62 +$19 +31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $95 +$18 +19%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 05 $8 −$4 -53%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 04 $16 −$16 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $98 −$97 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $98 −$97 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $432 −$287 -66%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $243 +$101 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $191 +$52 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $123 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $61 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $69 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $37 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 72¢ $30 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 42¢ $30 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $57 10h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 74¢ $42 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 4¢ $3 21h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 30¢ $39 21h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 87¢ $118 22h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 54¢ $118 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $48 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $243 24h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $206 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $174 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $225 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $7 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $91 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $183 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $154 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $127 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 97¢ $150 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.78 · official $122.78 (match) · 1103 history records