Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a4c…447d crypto 53 markets active 8h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$162 (-16%) realized −$162 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate83%44W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$138
crypto 33% −$27
sports 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 11% -25.7%
≤30d 53 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 11% -25.7%
≤90d 53 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 11% -25.7%
all 53 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 11% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 11% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 8% -32.8%
15% -28.5% 8% -39.3%
20% -35.5% 6% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$32 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$162
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses44 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 −$239 -91%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$13 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$63 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records