Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0A 0x0a4f…2a61 other 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$235 (+2%) realized +$235 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%25W / 89L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$241
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$109
other 43% +$68
sports 8% +$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 +34.2% +21.4% 71% 57% +21.4%
≤90d 48 -24.4% -31.6% 35% 12% -13.8%
all 114 +7.3% -3.0% 22% 12% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 12% -7.8%
10% -12.2% 12% -16.6%
15% -20.7% 12% -24.7%
20% -28.5% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$40 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized+$235
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses25 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage168d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $499 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $193 +$7 +3%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $54 +$106 +197%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $98 +$92 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $116 +$66 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $114 +$101 +89%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 17 $728 +$72 +10%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 13 $350 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 9? May 12 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $39 −$39 -100%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1,040 −$40 -4%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $366 −$366 -100%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 19? Apr 25 $349 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 25 $500 $0 +0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $34 +$251 +733%
Will CD Tondela win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $500 $0 +0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 16 $42 +$273 +649%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $998 +$2 +0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $37 −$36 -97%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $13 −$12 -97%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $33 −$32 -97%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Port Vale FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $499 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $66 11d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $12 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $44 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $2 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 12d
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $193 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $54 13d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $98 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $114 14d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $116 14d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $42 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 41d
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 41d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 43d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $34 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $40 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $10 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $20 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $49 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $10 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $11 44d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Jannik Sinner 91¢ $10 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $498.75 · official $498.75 (match) · 475 history records