Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:38:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a53…56cf world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 519d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%17W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$2
sports 33% −$13
other 25% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.9% -14.9% 57% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 37 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 0% -9.8%
all 39 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -23.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

519d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses17 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage519d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-91%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 31¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $42 +$4 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $85 +$3 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $11 −$6 -54%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $48 −$4 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $3 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $23 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $52 −$2 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $23 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $26 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $45 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $42 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $47 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $26 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $14 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $39 +$3 +8%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $3 $0 -9%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $289 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $262 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $268 −$5 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $220 −$3 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $1 $0 -6%
Aliskerov vs. Muniz Mar 26 $5 $0 -2%
Wyoming vs. New Mexico Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool end in a draw? Jan 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $46 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $46 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $46 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 62¢ $40 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $19 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 13¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 13¢ $3 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 62¢ $46 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 60¢ $45 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $45 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $48 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $27 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records