Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0A 0x0a53…8b93 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$20 (-4%) realized −$14 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day61.0pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-9.0%	-17.7%	52%	52%	-30.4%
≤30d	23	-9.0%	-17.7%	52%	52%	-30.4%
≤90d	23	-9.0%	-17.7%	52%	52%	-30.4%
all	23	-9.0%	-17.7%	52%	52%	-30.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover61.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-17.7%	52%	-30.4%
10% ← realistic here	-25.6%	48%	-37.1%
15%	-32.8%	35%	-43.2%
20%	-39.4%	26%	-48.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$20 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4

Realized−$14

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Open positions1

Markets (closed)23 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day61.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	48¢	18¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-61%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Jun 25	$38	−$26	-69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 25	$10	−$9	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 25	$61	−$61	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 25	$41	+$28	+69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$3	+11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 25	$36	+$8	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 25	$35	−$7	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 25	$25	+$7	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 25	$36	+$8	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 25	$15	+$9	+59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$2	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 25	$15	+$6	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+86%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals	Jun 25	$5	$0	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Jun 25	$93	−$85	-91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Jun 25	$26	+$17	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$5	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	7¢	$5	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$2	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$5	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	SELL Up	33¢	$12	6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$26	8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Up	8¢	$2	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$5	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$5	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$25	15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$5	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$26	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$5	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$26	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$5	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Down	95¢	$28	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	84¢	$25	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$25	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$2	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$5	33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	6¢	$5	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Up	8¢	$1	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$25	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$25	45m

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.85 · official $10.31 · 76 history records