Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a56…7616 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$441 (-34%) realized −$373 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate25%7W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$215
14 days−$215
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$306
crypto 35% −$181
sports 17% +$9
politics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-56.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -59.2% -63.1% 0% 0% -63.5%
≤30d 22 -42.4% -47.9% 32% 27% -43.9%
≤90d 22 -42.4% -47.9% 32% 27% -43.9%
all 28 -52.0% -56.6% 25% 21% -45.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.6% 21% -45.7%
10% -60.7% 18% -50.9%
15% -64.5% 18% -55.6%
20% -68.0% 18% -60.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$373
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses7 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage136d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $69 $47 −$21 (-31%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-48%)
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$74 -72%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $103 −$45 -43%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $154 −$96 -62%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $39 +$36 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 08 $60 −$58 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 08 $67 +$35 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 08 $31 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 08 $41 −$10 -24%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $14 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$50 -97%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $40 +$26 +64%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $19 −$19 -99%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $44 +$36 +81%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison? Feb 16 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Feb 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 60 million or more views on week 1? Feb 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami win the most seats in the Bangladesh p Feb 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds by February 13, 2 Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $29 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $58 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $58 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 57¢ $51 20d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 20d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 20d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 21d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 21d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $29 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $31 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.47 · official $116.47 (match) · 86 history records