Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0A
0x0a58…b48d
other · 54 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$99 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$97 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$201
Realized+$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions38
Markets (closed)16 / 54
History coverage13d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 38 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$96
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bilibili Gaming make a roster change before July? No 90¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will MiniMax have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Ding Xuexiang in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Li Qiang in 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$34 +81%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $66 +$17 +26%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$38 +197%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 02 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 46% +$7
other 26% +$88
crypto 17% $0
tech 5% +$1
world 4% $0
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $47 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 92¢ $28 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 93¢ $9 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 94¢ $28 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 93¢ $28 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 82¢ $94 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 73¢ $4 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 75¢ $8 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 78¢ $16 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 75¢ $8 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 75¢ $8 10h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 91¢ $7 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 38¢ $36 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 63¢ $63 10h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 11h
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 11h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $4 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $4 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $4 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $8 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 76¢ $8 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $8 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $8 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $19 15h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +24.9% +13.0% 86% 50% +10.0%
≤30d 16 +23.1% +11.4% 88% 50% +9.6%
≤90d 16 +23.1% +11.4% 88% 50% +9.6%
all 16 +23.1% +11.4% 88% 50% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 50% +9.6%
10% +0.7% 38% -0.9%
15% -9.0% 25% -10.5%
20% -17.9% 12% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.37 · official $201.42 (match) · 118 history records