Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a59…a27c other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$23 (-3%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$14
world 36% −$5
sports 15% $0
politics 3% −$3
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.0% 25% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 10% -11.0%
≤90d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 10% -11.0%
all 43 -3.7% -12.9% 21% 2% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 2% -12.0%
10% -21.2% 0% -20.4%
15% -28.8% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.8% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage259d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $4 $0 -11%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $91 −$5 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $48 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $6 $0 -8%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jan 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 20 $19 $0 +1%
Will CTBC Flying Oyster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 17 $5 −$3 -49%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Oct 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $22 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $27 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $47 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $47 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $47 20h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 24h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $17 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $36 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 41h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $38 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $57 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $56 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $48 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $7 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.64 · official $18.64 (match) · 163 history records