Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0A 0x0a59…ba82 sports 747 markets active 3h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,417 (-10%) realized −$21,421 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate62%460W / 286L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$681est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$648now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$348
7 days+$359
14 days−$1,450
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$7,071
other 38% −$14,965
world 0% −$79
crypto 0% −$23
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.2% -2.1% 90% 70% -2.8%
≤30d 248 -3.2% -12.4% 71% 41% -9.5%
≤90d 549 -8.1% -16.8% 63% 45% -17.7%
all 746 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 47% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 47% -18.9%
10% -24.6% 35% -26.6%
15% -31.9% 23% -33.7%
20% -38.6% 16% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$171 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$648
Realized−$21,421
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses460 / 286
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$681
Open positions1
Markets (closed)746 / 747
History coverage245d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $644 $648 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $562 +$89 +16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $453 +$109 +24%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $333 +$119 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $151 +$28 +19%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 25 $148 +$6 +4%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $266 +$32 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $215 +$52 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $154 +$61 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $437 −$435 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $376 +$63 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $331 +$32 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $315 +$19 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $289 +$26 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $246 +$42 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $220 +$26 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $191 +$27 +14%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$66 +52%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $305 −$298 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $110 +$98 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $393 −$186 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$114 +112%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$98 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $230 −$227 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $564 −$6 -1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $657 −$92 -14%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $127 +$26 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $582 +$49 +8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $546 +$34 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $443 +$101 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $822 −$374 -46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $781 +$39 +5%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $712 +$68 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $766 −$51 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $721 +$45 +6%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $622 +$99 +16%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $532 +$90 +17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $496 +$36 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $471 +$23 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,205 −$732 -61%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,074 +$130 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,012 +$63 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $932 +$78 +8%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,854 −$958 -52%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,802 +$72 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $647 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $651 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 85¢ $562 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $562 19h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $453 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $333 40h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Germany 96¢ $148 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $151 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $266 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $215 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $215 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $154 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $437 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $376 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $331 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $334 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $315 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $289 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $246 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $220 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $218 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $191 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $126 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.64 · official $647.64 (match) · 1533 history records