Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a59…0a0b sports 14 markets active 6d ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$965 (-55%) realized −$965 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip
Net edge-74%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$55
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$730
crypto 14% −$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-74.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.4% -24.4% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤30d 1 -16.4% -24.4% 0% 0% -24.4%
≤90d 6 -62.8% -66.4% 0% 0% -47.8%
all 14 -71.3% -74.0% 7% 7% -59.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -74.0% 7% -59.4%
10% -76.5% 7% -63.3%
15% -78.8% 7% -66.8%
20% -80.9% 7% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$83 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$965
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage168d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $335 −$55 -16%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 07 $180 −$172 -96%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $230 −$45 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 07 $70 −$67 -96%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $119 −$49 -41%
Packers vs. Vikings Jan 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Rice vs. Texas State Jan 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Dec 30 $85 −$85 -100%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 30 $90 −$90 -100%
Pistons vs. Jazz Dec 27 $241 −$241 -100%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Dec 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 27 $142 +$112 +79%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Dec 25 $117 −$117 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $280 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $335 10d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers $5 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $180 70d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $185 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $70 70d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $70 70d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $119 104d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $230 104d
Packers vs. Vikings BUY Packers 20¢ $12 164d
Rice vs. Texas State BUY Rice 11¢ $3 165d
Rice vs. Texas State BUY Rice 11¢ $10 165d
Pistons vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 45¢ $85 168d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 50¢ $90 168d
Pistons vs. Jazz BUY Pistons 78¢ $241 172d
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 44¢ $130 172d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 56¢ $142 173d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Thunder 46¢ $117 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records