Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:04:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a59…8e5c weather 1536 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,618 (+82%) realized +$4,703 · open −$85
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%190W / 1165L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day59.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$755
7 days−$455
14 days+$472
30 days+$1,338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% +$3,289
politics 3% +$6
other 1% −$5
world 1% +$97
crypto 0% +$28
sports 0% −$16
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -35.1% -41.2% 9% 8% -44.2%
≤30d 684 +30.5% +18.1% 15% 15% +30.8%
≤90d 1355 +17.3% +6.1% 14% 13% +21.7%
all 1355 +17.3% +6.1% 14% 13% +21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.1% 13% +21.7%
10% ← realistic here -4.1% 13% +10.0%
15% -13.3% 13% -0.6%
20% -21.8% 13% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$3 · ×10.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized+$4,703
Unrealized−$85
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses190 / 1165
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions39
Markets (closed)1355 / 1536
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day59.3
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 1355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+61%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 26? Yes 33¢ 98¢ $19 $56 +$37 (+198%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 79¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+1115%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $25 $20 −$4 (-17%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-61%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $11 $10 −$0 (-3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? Yes 25¢ 27¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? No 13¢ 6¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Yes 36¢ 14¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 27? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-52%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+57%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 460 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during t Jun 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 22? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C on December 18? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on December 22? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 6? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 5? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 11? Jun 26 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on April 20? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kings Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 9? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -3°C on March 2? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 14? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 45-46°F on No Jun 26 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Astros vs. Blue Jays Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2025-10-13? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Seahawks Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on April 17? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Linda" or "McMahon" during executive Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on No Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 4? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 11? Jun 26 $2 +$16 +1018%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Oc Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Jets vs. Flyers Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on Apri Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 18? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 48-49°F on December Jun 26 $1 −$5 -371%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 27 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10? Jun 26 $0 +$10 +68042%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Jun 26 $11 −$10 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 23? Jun 26 $9 −$7 -85%
Brewers vs. Blue Jays Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 1PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
UK sanctions on Russia by October 31? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Jun 26 $4 −$3 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 7m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 15m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 17m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 17m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 27? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 33m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 26? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 54m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 59m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 26? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 33¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 66¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 26? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.84 · official $268.84 (match) · 3500 history records