Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:30:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

0A 0x0a62…91c4 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$32 (+24%) realized +$45 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip

Net edge+44%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day1.6pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+43.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+29.6%
≤30d	5	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+29.6%
≤90d	5	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+29.6%
all	5	+58.9%	+43.7%	100%	100%	+29.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.7%	100%	+29.6%
10%	+30.0%	80%	+17.2%
15%	+17.4%	80%	+5.9%
20%	+5.9%	60%	-4.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$23

Realized+$45

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage6d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day1.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	40¢	25¢	$36	$23	−$13 (-37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$42	+$9	+20%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$22	+$11	+49%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 24	$5	+$4	+76%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$18	+$10	+55%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Jun 24	$9	+$9	+94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	40¢	$37	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	83¢	$42	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL	99¢	$33	23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$9	25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	65¢	$22	33h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$18	46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	SELL No	86¢	$18	46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY No	43¢	$9	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.61 · official $24.00 · 11 history records