Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:30:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a63…4cdc other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 23% −$21
culture 7% −$7
economics 7% −$8
politics 7% −$4
crypto 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage134d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $497 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $559 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $472 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $541 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $149 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $361 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $478 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $301 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $556 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $151 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $383 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $635 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 3h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 5h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 6h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 8h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 10h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 11h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 12h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 18h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 19h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 24h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 26h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 33h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 35h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 36h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 38h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 39h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 41h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 42h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 43h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.50 · official $58.50 (match) · 1406 history records