Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
0A 0x0a64…0ee6 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,218 (+91%) realized +$3,195 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt +107% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +87% what you keep after slip
Net edge+87%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$138
7 days−$138
14 days+$18
30 days+$1,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$2,561
sports 10% +$415
other 8% +$200
politics 7% +$11
crypto 3% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+86.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -70.3% -73.1% 0% 0% -77.9%
≤30d 10 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 40% +36.2%
≤90d 16 +106.6% +86.9% 50% 50% +85.0%
all 16 +106.6% +86.9% 50% 50% +85.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.9% 50% +85.0%
10% +69.1% 50% +67.3%
15% +52.7% 50% +51.2%
20% +37.7% 38% +36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +107% · $-wt +104% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +225% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$426 vs −$43 · ×9.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.8 per $1 lost it wins $9.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized+$3,195
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)16 / 29
History coverage79d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $97 $140 +$43 (+45%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $90 $64 −$26 (-28%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 19¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$5 -11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $301 +$231 +77%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $256 +$514 +201%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $70 +$27 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1,258 +$561 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $75 +$1,185 +1588%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $136 +$189 +139%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 16 $149 +$268 +180%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $291 +$433 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No $20 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $45 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $197 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 33h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 8d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 26¢ $52 8d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 9d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 9d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 10d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 10d
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 10d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $533 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 56¢ $301 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 11d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 30¢ $154 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $98 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $1,327 18d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $1,005 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $70 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $201 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $50 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $25 35d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $50 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.74 · official $533.75 (match) · 132 history records