Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:07:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a68…edd3 weather 315 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$576 (+10%) realized +$576 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%94W / 210L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days+$840
14 days+$925
30 days+$957
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% +$581
other 6% +$99
sports 2% +$50
crypto 1% +$14
world 1% +$7
politics 0% +$8
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +47.0% +33.0% 67% 54% -15.2%
≤30d 192 +4.5% -5.4% 35% 31% -10.6%
≤90d 304 -5.5% -14.5% 31% 29% -13.8%
all 304 -5.5% -14.5% 31% 29% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 29% -13.8%
10% -22.7% 26% -22.1%
15% -30.2% 22% -29.6%
20% -37.0% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$11 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$576
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses94 / 210
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)304 / 315
History coverage79d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $75 $76 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 21¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $310 +$112 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $62 +$36 +59%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $141 −$141 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $23 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 25? Jun 26 $85 +$15 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 25 $22 −$17 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $79 +$20 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $68 +$31 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 +$998 +95047%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $34 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 24? Jun 24 $38 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $29 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $160 −$153 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $35 −$33 -95%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 23 $11 +$18 +160%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $31 +$64 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $38 +$22 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $54 +$12 +23%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 22 $25 −$6 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $34 +$11 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $76 +$24 +32%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 22 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $76 +$22 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $40 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Jun 19 $101 +$38 +38%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 −$11 -74%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $41 +$62 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $22 +$58 +267%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 75¢ $14 25m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 28m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 27? BUY Yes 75¢ $53 28m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $422 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $98 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 6h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 73¢ $63 7h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 72¢ $13 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 8h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 69¢ $140 10h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 62¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 79¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 79¢ $71 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26? BUY Yes 75¢ $48 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? SELL Yes 36¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 16h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.38 · official $220.38 · 895 history records