Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

0A 0x0a69…3d57 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$768 (-6%) realized −$767 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate50%17W / 17L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$328per market

Trades / day1.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days−$13

30 days−$13

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-16.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	1	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	34	-7.6%	-16.4%	50%	38%	-15.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.4%	38%	-15.5%
10%	-24.4%	32%	-23.6%
15%	-31.7%	29%	-30.9%
20%	-38.4%	26%	-37.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

24% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -5% → late -10% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$298 vs −$343 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.87 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage

Net worth$135

Realized−$767

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses17 / 17

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)34 / 36

History coverage154d

Avg bet$328

Trades / day1.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 34 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	95¢	94¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$36	$36	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 07	$13	−$13	-99%
Warriors vs. Jazz	Mar 09	$276	−$276	-100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors	Mar 08	$441	−$441	-100%
Jazz vs. 76ers	Mar 08	$474	+$126	+27%
Pistons vs. Magic	Mar 04	$264	+$136	+52%
Rockets vs. Heat	Mar 01	$215	+$285	+133%
Knicks vs. Bucks	Feb 27	$336	−$336	-100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets	Feb 27	$360	+$240	+67%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz	Feb 25	$213	+$87	+41%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors	Feb 04	$368	−$368	-100%
Hawks vs. Pacers	Jan 31	$477	−$477	-100%
Clippers vs. Nuggets	Jan 31	$315	+$585	+186%
Bulls vs. Pacers	Jan 28	$648	−$648	-100%
Celtics vs. Bulls	Jan 28	$484	+$466	+96%
Raptors vs. Trail Blazers	Jan 23	$410	−$410	-100%
Hornets vs. Magic	Jan 22	$2,788	−$2,788	-100%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies	Jan 22	$1,320	+$1,680	+127%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026	Jan 21	$69	+$59	+86%
Suns vs. 76ers	Jan 21	$800	+$800	+100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Jan 20	$28	−$8	-30%
Will Don Lemon be criminally charged?	Jan 20	$14	+$1	+4%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?	Jan 20	$4	$0	+4%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	Jan 20	$26	−$6	-23%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026	Jan 20	$19	$0	-3%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026	Jan 20	$10	+$2	+18%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 19, 2026?	Jan 20	$7	$0	+5%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?	Jan 20	$19	+$1	+5%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?	Jan 20	$16	$0	-1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?	Jan 20	$7	−$3	-41%
Celtics vs. Pistons	Jan 20	$708	+$492	+70%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026	Jan 19	$16	−$16	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026	Jan 19	$33	−$33	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026	Jan 19	$6	−$6	-100%
Wizards vs. Nuggets	Jan 18	$498	+$102	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$37	2h
Spurs vs. Knicks	BUY Knicks	55¢	$13	13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	95¢	$100	79d
Warriors vs. Jazz	BUY Warriors	69¢	$276	103d
Mavericks vs. Raptors	BUY Mavericks	21¢	$170	104d
Mavericks vs. Raptors	BUY Mavericks	21¢	$32	104d
Mavericks vs. Raptors	BUY Mavericks	21¢	$239	104d
Jazz vs. 76ers	BUY 76ers	79¢	$474	108d
Pistons vs. Magic	BUY Pistons	66¢	$264	111d
Rockets vs. Heat	BUY Heat	43¢	$215	112d
Knicks vs. Bucks	BUY Bucks	28¢	$336	113d
Celtics vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	60¢	$360	115d
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz	BUY Trail Blazers	71¢	$213	128d
Timberwolves vs. Raptors	BUY Raptors	46¢	$368	135d
Hawks vs. Pacers	BUY Hawks	53¢	$477	140d
Clippers vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	35¢	$315	141d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$24	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$5	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$32	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$14	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$6	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$11	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$2	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$0	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$12	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$1	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$0	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$0	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$0	142d
Bulls vs. Pacers	BUY Bulls	54¢	$0	142d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.29 · official $135.29 (match) · 245 history records