Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:26:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0A 0x0a6b…6207 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$32 (+3%) realized +$32 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate44%20W / 25L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 24% −$7
politics 19% +$37
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -0.6% -10.1% 19% 0% -10.0%
all 45 +3.0% -6.8% 44% 7% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -6.6%
10% -15.7% 7% -15.5%
15% -23.8% 7% -23.7%
20% -31.3% 4% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses20 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage399d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $24 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $44 −$2 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $109 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $20 −$1 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 15 $1 $0 +1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $44 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 03 $49 $0 +1%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $3 +$7 +209%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $35 +$29 +83%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $21 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Knicks vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 28 $21 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 27 $21 $0 +2%
Will Denmark win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 22 $9 $0 +2%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 21 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 18 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $35 35m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $35 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 21h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $29 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $21 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $33 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $8 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $25 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $3 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records