Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0A 0x0a6c…8738 sports 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$288 (+9%) realized +$251 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate51%36W / 34L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$259
14 days+$259
30 days+$365
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$212
other 37% +$206
politics 3% +$2
tech 1% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -18.2% -26.0% 49% 39% +0.6%
≤30d 61 -16.8% -24.7% 49% 39% +3.4%
≤90d 70 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 39% +2.5%
all 70 -13.9% -22.1% 51% 39% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% +2.5%
10% -29.6% 29% -7.3%
15% -36.4% 21% -16.3%
20% -42.6% 19% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$251
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses36 / 34
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage51d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 84¢ 100¢ $279 $332 +$53 (+19%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 42¢ 9¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $320 +$5 +2%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $200 +$15 +8%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $51 −$8 -15%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +22%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 +$5 +52%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 +$4 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +30%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 +$3 +34%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $20 +$17 +85%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$12 +105%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Canada to win Jun 19 $20 +$32 +158%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $151 +$5 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$1 -1%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Jhon Arias: 1+ goals Jun 18 $20 −$5 -25%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $162 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $159 +$87 +55%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$3 -30%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +32%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $142 +$4 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $280 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 39¢ $25 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Haiti 98¢ $320 19h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 15¢ $21 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 50¢ $10 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $216 25h
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner BUY Morocco 59¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 70¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 25h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 93¢ $200 26h
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $5 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $24 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 45¢ $19 26h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 26h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 26h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 26h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $14 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $88 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $43 26h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $14 26h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 85¢ $38 26h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.13 · official $365.65 · 195 history records