Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0A 0x0a6d…1d0a other 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Total PnL +$349,529 (+283%) realized +$337,794 · open +$11,735
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +250% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +158% what you keep after slip
Net edge+158%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate84%56W / 11L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$551per market
Trades / day490.6pace
Fees−$185est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$128,455now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$15,155
politics 14% +$1,072
world 14% +$3,038
tech 13% +$5,587
finance 5% +$1,131
sports 4% +$1,618
economics 2% +$22
crypto 1% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (491 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+216.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +249.6% +216.3% 84% 66% +18.3%
≤30d 67 +249.6% +216.3% 84% 66% +18.3%
≤90d 67 +249.6% +216.3% 84% 66% +18.3%
all 67 +249.6% +216.3% 84% 66% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover490.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +216.3% 66% +18.3%
10% +186.0% 57% +7.0%
15% ← realistic here +158.4% 51% -3.4%
20% +133.0% 48% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +250% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$781) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +282% → late +218% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$29 · ×9.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×50.57 per $1 lost it wins $50.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$128,455
Realized+$337,794
Unrealized+$11,735
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses56 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$185
Open positions496
Markets (closed)67 / 224
History coverage7d
Avg bet$551
Trades / day490.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 496 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 96¢ $2,414 $3,511 +$1,097 (+45%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,743 $1,868 +$125 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 80¢ $1,396 $1,761 +$365 (+26%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,622 $1,685 +$63 (+4%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,614 $1,683 +$69 (+4%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $1,602 $1,678 +$77 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 87¢ 99¢ $1,436 $1,627 +$191 (+13%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,467 $1,584 +$117 (+8%)
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 99¢ $1,237 $1,437 +$200 (+16%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 74¢ 91¢ $1,131 $1,386 +$255 (+23%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,216 $1,299 +$83 (+7%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 92¢ $880 $1,231 +$351 (+40%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 55¢ 82¢ $816 $1,218 +$402 (+49%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 84¢ $720 $1,170 +$450 (+62%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 92¢ $659 $1,124 +$465 (+71%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 42¢ 72¢ $655 $1,118 +$463 (+71%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,076 $1,114 +$39 (+4%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 22¢ 78¢ $316 $1,107 +$791 (+251%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 41¢ 80¢ $563 $1,105 +$542 (+96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,073 $1,102 +$28 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 20¢ 33¢ $676 $1,097 +$421 (+62%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 77¢ 88¢ $962 $1,094 +$131 (+14%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1,092 $1,093 +$1 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,045 $1,081 +$36 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30? No 88¢ 96¢ $966 $1,060 +$94 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $19 $0 -2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $587 +$384 +65%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 14 $230 +$420 +182%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $27 +$88 +322%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 14 $3,325 +$785 +24%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 14 $1 +$30 +2370%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $324 +$428 +132%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 14 $14 −$9 -61%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$14 +249%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $45 +$6 +14%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 14 $62 +$610 +991%
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 14 $111 +$22 +20%
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,302 +$1,055 +32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $125 +$431 +346%
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 13 $537 +$30 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $564 +$719 +128%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $108 −$38 -35%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $337 +$17 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 12 $33 +$190 +574%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $149 +$267 +180%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $2,112 +$68 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $1,199 +$103 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3,258 +$582 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,222 +$35 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $1,649 +$76 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $1,323 +$49 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $630 +$120 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1,579 +$942 +60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $639 +$279 +44%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,400 +$713 +51%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? Jun 12 $19 −$14 -74%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $7 +$145 +2008%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $4 +$2 +56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.6T and $1.8T at market close on Jun 12 $16 +$62 +393%
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 12 $2 +$13 +591%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Jun 12 $7 +$18 +259%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 12 $9 +$22 +249%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $4 +$37 +1020%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 12 $47 +$4 +9%
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$64 +1084%
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 12 $4 +$70 +1749%
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $2 +$250 +14031%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $941 −$155 -16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $15,829 +$634 +4%
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $107 +$18 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $2,122 +$576 +27%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $777 +$53 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $65 2m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $33 2m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 3m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $31 6m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $58 17m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $121 21m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 25m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $97 26m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 26m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 26m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 90¢ $20 29m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 71¢ $28 29m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 30m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 34m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 34m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 35m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 35m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 35m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 38m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 27¢ $55 38m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 16¢ $13 42m
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 88¢ $71 43m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 44m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 45m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 46m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 12¢ $38 46m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $21 47m
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 47m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 48m
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 16¢ $16 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128,454.52 · official $130,678.85 · 3500 history records