Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:35:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
0A 0x0a77…e2af crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$161 (-8%) realized −$161 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate60%26W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$371
7 days+$371
14 days+$371
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% +$340
tech 14% −$146
other 13% +$33
politics 5% $0
sports 5% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +12.0% +1.3% 59% 24% +15.5%
≤30d 34 +12.0% +1.3% 59% 24% +15.5%
≤90d 34 +12.0% +1.3% 59% 24% +15.5%
all 43 +5.6% -4.4% 60% 19% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 19% -0.9%
10% -13.6% 9% -10.3%
15% -21.9% 5% -19.0%
20% -29.6% 2% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$161
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses26 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage584d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 21 $63 +$352 +557%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 21 $63 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $93 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$26 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $81 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $62 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $112 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $62 −$27 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$17 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman wear a suit and tie by Thursday? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Feb 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Feb 02 $50 +$1 +2%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025? Feb 02 $50 +$1 +3%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Nov 19 $100 +$9 +9%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? Nov 20 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Nov 19 $100 $0 -0%
Coinbase #1 finance app on Friday? Nov 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Coinbase top 10 app on Friday? Nov 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $415 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $32 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records